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Foz Cataratas W vs Santos W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Foz Cataratas W
Foz Cataratas W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Santos W
Santos W
8/9/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Foz Cataratas W25%
×Draw25%
Santos W50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foz Cataratas W
1.09
Santos W
1.64

Santos W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 60 away

creates per match

Foz Cataratas W
0.71
Santos W
1.85

allows per match

Foz Cataratas W
1.43
Santos W
1.47

finishing

Foz Cataratas W+0.00on par
Santos W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foz Cataratas W ↓

Santos W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Foz Cataratas W or draw
50%
Foz Cataratas W or Santos W
75%
Draw or Santos W
75%

Winning margin

Foz Cataratas W wins by 2+
10%
Santos W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Foz Cataratas W 1+ goals
66%
Foz Cataratas W 2+ goals
30%
Foz Cataratas W 3+ goals
10%
Santos W 1+ goals
81%
Santos W 2+ goals
49%
Santos W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Foz Cataratas W (draw refunded)
34%
Santos W (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foz Cataratas W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Santos W away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foz Cataratas W attack 0.71 + Santos W defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.09

Santos W attack 1.85 + Foz Cataratas W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Foz Cataratas W scores more
25%
level
25%
Santos W scores more
50%

Santos W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Foz Cataratas W 0–4 Santos W

Santos W beat Foz Cataratas W 4-0 in Brasileiro Women on August 9, 2018.