Foz Cataratas W 1–2 Ponte Preta W: Result & Stats

Foz Cataratas W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ponte Preta W

5/31/2018

Brasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Foz Cataratas W49%

×Draw26%

Ponte Preta W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Foz Cataratas WExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.01

Foz Cataratas W

1.51

Ponte Preta W

1.01

Foz Cataratas W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

0.71

creates per match

0.59

1.43

allows per match

2.32

creates per match

Foz Cataratas W

0.71

Ponte Preta W

0.59

allows per match

Foz Cataratas W

1.43

Ponte Preta W

2.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foz Cataratas W+0.00on par

Ponte Preta W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foz Cataratas W ↓

Ponte Preta W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Foz Cataratas W or draw

75%

Foz Cataratas W or Ponte Preta W

74%

Draw or Ponte Preta W

51%

Winning margin

Foz Cataratas W wins by 2+

25%

Ponte Preta W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Foz Cataratas W 1+ goals

78%

Foz Cataratas W 2+ goals

44%

Foz Cataratas W 3+ goals

19%

Ponte Preta W 1+ goals

64%

Ponte Preta W 2+ goals

27%

Ponte Preta W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Foz Cataratas W (draw refunded)

66%

Ponte Preta W (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foz Cataratas W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Ponte Preta W away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foz Cataratas W attack 0.71 + Ponte Preta W defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.51

Ponte Preta W attack 0.59 + Foz Cataratas W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Foz Cataratas W scores more

49%

level

26%

Ponte Preta W scores more

25%

Foz Cataratas W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Foz Cataratas W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff