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Foz-Athletico W vs Internacional RS W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Foz-Athletico W
Foz-Athletico W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Internacional RS W
Internacional RS W
7/24/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Pedro Basso (Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Foz-Athletico W27%
×Draw26%
Internacional RS W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foz-Athletico W
1.06
Internacional RS W
1.46

Internacional RS W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 64 away

creates per match

Foz-Athletico W
0.86
Internacional RS W
1.48

allows per match

Foz-Athletico W
1.43
Internacional RS W
1.27

finishing

Foz-Athletico W+0.00on par
Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foz-Athletico W ↓

Internacional RS W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Foz-Athletico W or draw
54%
Foz-Athletico W or Internacional RS W
74%
Draw or Internacional RS W
73%

Winning margin

Foz-Athletico W wins by 2+
10%
Internacional RS W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Foz-Athletico W 1+ goals
65%
Foz-Athletico W 2+ goals
29%
Foz-Athletico W 3+ goals
9%
Internacional RS W 1+ goals
77%
Internacional RS W 2+ goals
43%
Internacional RS W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Foz-Athletico W (draw refunded)
37%
Internacional RS W (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foz-Athletico W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Internacional RS W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foz-Athletico W attack 0.86 + Internacional RS W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Internacional RS W attack 1.48 + Foz-Athletico W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Foz-Athletico W scores more
27%
level
26%
Internacional RS W scores more
46%

Internacional RS W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Foz-Athletico W 1–1 Internacional RS W

Foz-Athletico W and Internacional RS W drew 1-1 in Brasileiro Women on July 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Pedro Basso (Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná).