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Fovu Club vs Young Sport Academy — Elite One 2019

Fovu Club
Fovu Club
FT
2 – 1
Young Sport Academy
Young Sport Academy
3/3/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 7Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam (Bafoussam)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Fovu Club43%
×Draw29%
Young Sport Academy28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fovu Club
1.22
Young Sport Academy
0.94

Fovu Club creates 30% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 79 away

creates per match

Fovu Club
1.11
Young Sport Academy
0.94

allows per match

Fovu Club
0.94
Young Sport Academy
1.32

finishing

Fovu Club+0.00on par
Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fovu Club ↓

Young Sport Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fovu Club or draw
72%
Fovu Club or Young Sport Academy
71%
Draw or Young Sport Academy
57%

Winning margin

Fovu Club wins by 2+
19%
Young Sport Academy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fovu Club 1+ goals
70%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
34%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
12%
Young Sport Academy 1+ goals
61%
Young Sport Academy 2+ goals
24%
Young Sport Academy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fovu Club (draw refunded)
60%
Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fovu Club at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.94 · 70 matches

Young Sport Academy away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fovu Club attack 1.11 + Young Sport Academy defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Young Sport Academy attack 0.94 + Fovu Club defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fovu Club scores more
43%
level
29%
Young Sport Academy scores more
28%

Fovu Club at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fovu Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fovu Club vs Young Sport Academy

Fovu Club beat Young Sport Academy 2-1 in Elite One on March 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam (Bafoussam).