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Fovu Club vs Union Douala — Elite One 2019

Fovu Club
Fovu Club
FT
2 – 0
Union Douala
Union Douala
7/11/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 13Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Fovu Club42%
×Draw31%
Union Douala27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fovu Club
1.10
Union Douala
0.82

Fovu Club creates 34% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 85 away

creates per match

Fovu Club
1.11
Union Douala
0.71

allows per match

Fovu Club
0.94
Union Douala
1.08

finishing

Fovu Club+0.00on par
Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fovu Club ↓

Union Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fovu Club or draw
73%
Fovu Club or Union Douala
69%
Draw or Union Douala
58%

Winning margin

Fovu Club wins by 2+
17%
Union Douala wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fovu Club 1+ goals
67%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
30%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
10%
Union Douala 1+ goals
56%
Union Douala 2+ goals
20%
Union Douala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fovu Club (draw refunded)
61%
Union Douala (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fovu Club at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.94 · 70 matches

Union Douala away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fovu Club attack 1.11 + Union Douala defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Union Douala attack 0.71 + Fovu Club defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fovu Club scores more
42%
level
31%
Union Douala scores more
27%

Fovu Club at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fovu Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fovu Club vs Union Douala

Fovu Club beat Union Douala 2-0 in Elite One on July 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.