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Fovu Club vs New Star — Elite One 2019

Fovu Club
Fovu Club
FT
1 – 0
New Star
New Star
3/7/2018Elite OneElite One · Round 6Stade du CENAJES (Dschang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fovu Club50%
×Draw28%
New Star22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fovu Club
1.33
New Star
0.78

Fovu Club creates 71% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 37 away

creates per match

Fovu Club
1.11
New Star
0.62

allows per match

Fovu Club
0.94
New Star
1.54

finishing

Fovu Club+0.00on par
New Star+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fovu Club ↓

New Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fovu Club or draw
78%
Fovu Club or New Star
72%
Draw or New Star
50%

Winning margin

Fovu Club wins by 2+
24%
New Star wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fovu Club 1+ goals
74%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
38%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
15%
New Star 1+ goals
54%
New Star 2+ goals
18%
New Star 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fovu Club (draw refunded)
69%
New Star (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fovu Club at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.94 · 70 matches

New Star away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fovu Club attack 1.11 + New Star defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

New Star attack 0.62 + Fovu Club defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fovu Club scores more
50%
level
28%
New Star scores more
22%

Fovu Club at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fovu Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Fovu Club 1–0 New Star

Fovu Club beat New Star 1-0 in Elite One on March 7, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du CENAJES (Dschang).