Fovu Club 0–1 Les Astres: Result & Stats

Fovu Club

FT

0 – 1

Les Astres

5/12/2019

Elite One · Relegation Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Fovu Club41%

×Draw29%

Les Astres30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fovu ClubExpected goals in this matchLes Astres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.98

Fovu Club

1.21

Les Astres

0.98

Fovu Club creates 23% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 75 away

1.11

creates per match

1.03

0.94

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Fovu Club

1.11

Les Astres

1.03

allows per match

Fovu Club

0.94

Les Astres

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fovu Club+0.00on par

Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fovu Club ↓

Les Astres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fovu Club or draw

70%

Fovu Club or Les Astres

71%

Draw or Les Astres

59%

Winning margin

Fovu Club wins by 2+

18%

Les Astres wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fovu Club 1+ goals

70%

Fovu Club 2+ goals

34%

Fovu Club 3+ goals

12%

Les Astres 1+ goals

62%

Les Astres 2+ goals

26%

Les Astres 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fovu Club (draw refunded)

58%

Les Astres (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fovu Club at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.94 · 70 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fovu Club attack 1.11 + Les Astres defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Les Astres attack 1.03 + Fovu Club defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fovu Club scores more

41%

level

29%

Les Astres scores more

30%

Fovu Club at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fovu Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff