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Fovu Club vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

Fovu Club
Fovu Club
FT
2 – 3
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
8/25/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 21Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Fovu Club42%
×Draw28%
Fortuna Mfou30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fovu Club
1.25
Fortuna Mfou
1.02

Fovu Club creates 23% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 96 away

creates per match

Fovu Club
1.11
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

Fovu Club
0.94
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

Fovu Club+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fovu Club ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fovu Club or draw
70%
Fovu Club or Fortuna Mfou
72%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
58%

Winning margin

Fovu Club wins by 2+
18%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fovu Club 1+ goals
71%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
36%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
13%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
64%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
27%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fovu Club (draw refunded)
58%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fovu Club at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.94 · 70 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fovu Club attack 1.11 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Fovu Club defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fovu Club scores more
42%
level
28%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
30%

Fovu Club at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fovu Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Fovu Club 2–3 Fortuna Mfou

Fortuna Mfou beat Fovu Club 3-2 in Elite One on August 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.