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Fovu Club vs FAP — Elite Two 2020

Fovu Club
Fovu Club
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FAP
FAP
12/22/2024Elite TwoElite Two · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fovu Club35%
×Draw28%
FAP37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fovu Club
1.18
FAP
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 50 away

creates per match

Fovu Club
0.91
FAP
1.32

allows per match

Fovu Club
1.09
FAP
1.44

finishing

Fovu Club+0.00on par
FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fovu Club ↓

FAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fovu Club or draw
63%
Fovu Club or FAP
72%
Draw or FAP
65%

Winning margin

Fovu Club wins by 2+
15%
FAP wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fovu Club 1+ goals
69%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
33%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
12%
FAP 1+ goals
70%
FAP 2+ goals
34%
FAP 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fovu Club (draw refunded)
49%
FAP (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fovu Club at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

FAP away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.44 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fovu Club attack 0.91 + FAP defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18

FAP attack 1.32 + Fovu Club defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fovu Club scores more
35%
level
28%
FAP scores more
37%

FAP at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fovu Club vs FAP

FAP beat Fovu Club 1-0 in Elite Two on December 22, 2024.