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Foutoua vs Wathba — Premier League 2019

Foutoua
Foutoua
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wathba
Wathba
12/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Al Jalaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Foutoua30%
×Draw28%
Wathba42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foutoua
1.02
Wathba
1.28

Wathba creates 25% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 82 away

creates per match

Foutoua
1.32
Wathba
1.15

allows per match

Foutoua
1.41
Wathba
0.72

finishing

Foutoua+0.00on par
Wathba+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foutoua ↓

Wathba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Foutoua or draw
58%
Foutoua or Wathba
72%
Draw or Wathba
70%

Winning margin

Foutoua wins by 2+
11%
Wathba wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Foutoua 1+ goals
64%
Foutoua 2+ goals
27%
Foutoua 3+ goals
8%
Wathba 1+ goals
72%
Wathba 2+ goals
37%
Wathba 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Foutoua (draw refunded)
41%
Wathba (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foutoua at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.41 · 81 matches

Wathba away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.72 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foutoua attack 1.32 + Wathba defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.02

Wathba attack 1.15 + Foutoua defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Foutoua scores more
30%
level
28%
Wathba scores more
42%

Wathba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wathba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Foutoua 2–1 Wathba

Foutoua beat Wathba 2-1 in Premier League on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Al Jalaa Stadium in Damascus.