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Foutoua vs Al Sahel — Premier League 2019

Foutoua
Foutoua
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Sahel
Al Sahel
4/24/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Tishreen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Foutoua52%
×Draw25%
Al Sahel24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foutoua
1.64
Al Sahel
1.02

Foutoua creates 61% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 24 away

creates per match

Foutoua
1.32
Al Sahel
0.63

allows per match

Foutoua
1.41
Al Sahel
1.96

finishing

Foutoua+0.00on par
Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foutoua ↓

Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Foutoua or draw
76%
Foutoua or Al Sahel
75%
Draw or Al Sahel
48%

Winning margin

Foutoua wins by 2+
28%
Al Sahel wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Foutoua 1+ goals
81%
Foutoua 2+ goals
49%
Foutoua 3+ goals
23%
Al Sahel 1+ goals
64%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
27%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Foutoua (draw refunded)
69%
Al Sahel (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foutoua at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.41 · 81 matches

Al Sahel away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foutoua attack 1.32 + Al Sahel defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.64

Al Sahel attack 0.63 + Foutoua defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Foutoua scores more
52%
level
25%
Al Sahel scores more
24%

Foutoua at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Foutoua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Foutoua vs Al Sahel

Foutoua beat Al Sahel 2-0 in Premier League on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Tishreen Stadium in Damascus.