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Foutoua vs Al Jaish — Premier League 2019

Foutoua
Foutoua
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Al Jaish
Al Jaish
7/28/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Tishreen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Foutoua25%
×Draw24%
Al Jaish51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foutoua
1.12
Al Jaish
1.71

Al Jaish creates 53% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 13 away

creates per match

Foutoua
1.32
Al Jaish
2.00

allows per match

Foutoua
1.41
Al Jaish
0.92

finishing

Foutoua+0.00on par
Al Jaish+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foutoua ↓

Al Jaish →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Foutoua or draw
49%
Foutoua or Al Jaish
76%
Draw or Al Jaish
75%

Winning margin

Foutoua wins by 2+
10%
Al Jaish wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Foutoua 1+ goals
67%
Foutoua 2+ goals
31%
Foutoua 3+ goals
10%
Al Jaish 1+ goals
82%
Al Jaish 2+ goals
51%
Al Jaish 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Foutoua (draw refunded)
33%
Al Jaish (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foutoua at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.41 · 81 matches

Al Jaish away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foutoua attack 1.32 + Al Jaish defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.12

Al Jaish attack 2.00 + Foutoua defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Foutoua scores more
25%
level
24%
Al Jaish scores more
51%

Al Jaish at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Jaish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Foutoua vs Al Jaish

Al Jaish beat Foutoua 6-1 in Premier League on July 28, 2020.

The match was played at Tishreen Stadium in Damascus.