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Fountain Gate vs Tanzania Prisons — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Fountain Gate
Fountain Gate
FT
1 – 1
Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
6/26/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Relegation - Semi-FinalsKwaraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fountain Gate42%
×Draw28%
Tanzania Prisons29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fountain Gate
1.27
Tanzania Prisons
1.01

Fountain Gate creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 33 away

creates per match

Fountain Gate
1.03
Tanzania Prisons
0.64

allows per match

Fountain Gate
1.37
Tanzania Prisons
1.52

finishing

Fountain Gate+0.00on par
Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fountain Gate ↓

Tanzania Prisons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fountain Gate or draw
71%
Fountain Gate or Tanzania Prisons
72%
Draw or Tanzania Prisons
58%

Winning margin

Fountain Gate wins by 2+
19%
Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fountain Gate 1+ goals
72%
Fountain Gate 2+ goals
36%
Fountain Gate 3+ goals
14%
Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
64%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
27%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fountain Gate (draw refunded)
59%
Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fountain Gate at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fountain Gate attack 1.03 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.64 + Fountain Gate defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fountain Gate scores more
42%
level
28%
Tanzania Prisons scores more
29%

Fountain Gate at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fountain Gate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fountain Gate vs Tanzania Prisons

Fountain Gate and Tanzania Prisons drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 26, 2025.

The match was played at Kwaraa Stadium in Babati.