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Fountain Gate vs KMC — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Fountain Gate
Fountain Gate
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KMC
KMC
12/11/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 13Black Rhino Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Fountain Gate45%
×Draw29%
KMC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fountain Gate
1.28
KMC
0.91

Fountain Gate creates 41% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 112 away

creates per match

Fountain Gate
1.19
KMC
0.59

allows per match

Fountain Gate
1.23
KMC
1.37

finishing

Fountain Gate+0.00on par
KMC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fountain Gate ↓

KMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fountain Gate or draw
74%
Fountain Gate or KMC
71%
Draw or KMC
55%

Winning margin

Fountain Gate wins by 2+
21%
KMC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fountain Gate 1+ goals
72%
Fountain Gate 2+ goals
37%
Fountain Gate 3+ goals
14%
KMC 1+ goals
60%
KMC 2+ goals
23%
KMC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fountain Gate (draw refunded)
63%
KMC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fountain Gate at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

KMC away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.37 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fountain Gate attack 1.19 + KMC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.28

KMC attack 0.59 + Fountain Gate defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fountain Gate scores more
45%
level
29%
KMC scores more
26%

Fountain Gate at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fountain Gate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Fountain Gate 0–0 KMC

Fountain Gate and KMC drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 11, 2023.

The match was played at Black Rhino Academy Stadium in Karatu.