Fountain Gate 1–0 Kagera Sugar: Result & Stats

Fountain Gate

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kagera Sugar

1/17/2023

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 20Liti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Fountain Gate42%

×Draw29%

Kagera Sugar29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fountain GateExpected goals in this matchKagera Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.99

Fountain Gate

1.25

Kagera Sugar

0.99

Fountain Gate creates 26% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 96 away

1.19

creates per match

0.75

1.23

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Fountain Gate

1.19

Kagera Sugar

0.75

allows per match

Fountain Gate

1.23

Kagera Sugar

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fountain Gate+0.00on par

Kagera Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fountain Gate ↓

Kagera Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fountain Gate or draw

71%

Fountain Gate or Kagera Sugar

71%

Draw or Kagera Sugar

58%

Winning margin

Fountain Gate wins by 2+

19%

Kagera Sugar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fountain Gate 1+ goals

71%

Fountain Gate 2+ goals

36%

Fountain Gate 3+ goals

13%

Kagera Sugar 1+ goals

63%

Kagera Sugar 2+ goals

26%

Kagera Sugar 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fountain Gate (draw refunded)

59%

Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fountain Gate at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

Kagera Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.31 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fountain Gate attack 1.19 + Kagera Sugar defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kagera Sugar attack 0.75 + Fountain Gate defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fountain Gate scores more

42%

level

29%

Kagera Sugar scores more

29%

Fountain Gate at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fountain Gate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff