Fountain Gate 2–2 JKT Tanzania: Result & Stats

Fountain Gate

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

JKT Tanzania

12/1/2023

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 12Liti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Fountain Gate39%

×Draw28%

JKT Tanzania32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fountain GateExpected goals in this matchJKT Tanzania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.09

Fountain Gate

1.23

JKT Tanzania

1.09

Fountain Gate creates 13% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 82 away

1.19

creates per match

0.95

1.23

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Fountain Gate

1.19

JKT Tanzania

0.95

allows per match

Fountain Gate

1.23

JKT Tanzania

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fountain Gate+0.00on par

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fountain Gate ↓

JKT Tanzania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fountain Gate or draw

68%

Fountain Gate or JKT Tanzania

72%

Draw or JKT Tanzania

61%

Winning margin

Fountain Gate wins by 2+

17%

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fountain Gate 1+ goals

71%

Fountain Gate 2+ goals

35%

Fountain Gate 3+ goals

13%

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals

66%

JKT Tanzania 2+ goals

30%

JKT Tanzania 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fountain Gate (draw refunded)

55%

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fountain Gate at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

JKT Tanzania away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fountain Gate attack 1.19 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

JKT Tanzania attack 0.95 + Fountain Gate defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fountain Gate scores more

39%

level

28%

JKT Tanzania scores more

32%

Fountain Gate at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fountain Gate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff