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Fountain Gate vs Geita Gold — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Fountain Gate
Fountain Gate
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Geita Gold
Geita Gold
5/25/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 29Nyamagana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fountain Gate43%
×Draw28%
Geita Gold29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fountain Gate
1.29
Geita Gold
1.02

Fountain Gate creates 26% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 45 away

creates per match

Fountain Gate
1.19
Geita Gold
0.82

allows per match

Fountain Gate
1.23
Geita Gold
1.40

finishing

Fountain Gate+0.00on par
Geita Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fountain Gate ↓

Geita Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fountain Gate or draw
71%
Fountain Gate or Geita Gold
72%
Draw or Geita Gold
57%

Winning margin

Fountain Gate wins by 2+
19%
Geita Gold wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fountain Gate 1+ goals
72%
Fountain Gate 2+ goals
37%
Fountain Gate 3+ goals
14%
Geita Gold 1+ goals
64%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
27%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fountain Gate (draw refunded)
59%
Geita Gold (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fountain Gate at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

Geita Gold away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fountain Gate attack 1.19 + Geita Gold defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Geita Gold attack 0.82 + Fountain Gate defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fountain Gate scores more
43%
level
28%
Geita Gold scores more
29%

Fountain Gate at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fountain Gate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fountain Gate vs Geita Gold

Fountain Gate beat Geita Gold 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Nyamagana Stadium in Mwanza.