Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fountain Gate vs Coastal Union — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Fountain Gate
Fountain Gate
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Coastal Union
Coastal Union
11/27/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 11Liti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Fountain Gate42%
×Draw29%
Coastal Union29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fountain Gate
1.23
Coastal Union
0.97

Fountain Gate creates 27% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 111 away

creates per match

Fountain Gate
1.19
Coastal Union
0.72

allows per match

Fountain Gate
1.23
Coastal Union
1.28

finishing

Fountain Gate+0.00on par
Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fountain Gate ↓

Coastal Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fountain Gate or draw
71%
Fountain Gate or Coastal Union
71%
Draw or Coastal Union
58%

Winning margin

Fountain Gate wins by 2+
19%
Coastal Union wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fountain Gate 1+ goals
71%
Fountain Gate 2+ goals
35%
Fountain Gate 3+ goals
13%
Coastal Union 1+ goals
62%
Coastal Union 2+ goals
25%
Coastal Union 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fountain Gate (draw refunded)
59%
Coastal Union (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fountain Gate at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fountain Gate attack 1.19 + Coastal Union defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Coastal Union attack 0.72 + Fountain Gate defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fountain Gate scores more
42%
level
29%
Coastal Union scores more
29%

Fountain Gate at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fountain Gate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Fountain Gate 2–1 Coastal Union

Fountain Gate beat Coastal Union 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 27, 2023.

The match was played at Liti Stadium in Singida.