Coastal Union 1–1 Fountain Gate: Result & Stats

Coastal Union

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fountain Gate

A. Makambo 59'

J. Issa 45'

10/22/2025

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 5Mkwakwani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Coastal Union45%

×Draw29%

Fountain Gate26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coastal UnionExpected goals in this matchFountain Gate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.88

Coastal Union

1.26

Fountain Gate

0.88

Coastal Union creates 43% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

0.93

creates per match

0.76

1.00

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Coastal Union

0.93

Fountain Gate

0.76

allows per match

Coastal Union

1.00

Fountain Gate

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coastal Union+0.00on par

Fountain Gate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Union ↓

Fountain Gate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Coastal Union or draw

74%

Coastal Union or Fountain Gate

71%

Draw or Fountain Gate

55%

Winning margin

Coastal Union wins by 2+

20%

Fountain Gate wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coastal Union 1+ goals

72%

Coastal Union 2+ goals

36%

Coastal Union 3+ goals

13%

Fountain Gate 1+ goals

59%

Fountain Gate 2+ goals

22%

Fountain Gate 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Coastal Union (draw refunded)

64%

Fountain Gate (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Union at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

Fountain Gate away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Union attack 0.93 + Fountain Gate defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.26

Fountain Gate attack 0.76 + Coastal Union defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Coastal Union scores more

45%

level

29%

Fountain Gate scores more

26%

Coastal Union at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Coastal Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

45'

46'

59'

62'

62'

S. Said← J. Issa

64'

75'

75'

82'

90+3'

Coastal

Fountain

31

20

15

29

23

4

▼

Joram

46

Mpozi

8

Mokono

69

⚽

▼

Issa

11

▼

Aziz

17

▼

33

26

5

42

66

16

63

▼

Said

19

Msimu

13

▼

Kiala

8

Mkandala

10

⚽

Makambo

Manager: M. Alawi

46'▲M. Andrea←▼L. Kiala

82'▲S. Gustapha←▼A. Said

Coastal Union substitutes

GustaphaLusatoUlayaMohamedAbdallahRamadhaniWilliamMwalugalaAndrea

Manager: R. Nswazirimo

62'▲M. Abdi←▼I. Joshua

62'▲S. Said←▼J. Issa

75'▲A. Omary←▼D. Joram

75'▲A. Athuman←▼I. Aziz

Fountain Gate substitutes

19MtambiHassan14Maneno39Abdi60Mgunda27Omary22SaidKisunga3OmaryAthuman