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Forward vs Säffle SK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Forward
Forward
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Säffle SK
Säffle SK
4/10/2023Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 2Trängens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Forward66%
×Draw18%
Säffle SK15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forward
2.35
Säffle SK
1.03

Forward creates 128% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 26 away

creates per match

Forward
2.48
Säffle SK
0.81

allows per match

Forward
1.25
Säffle SK
2.23

finishing

Forward+0.00on par
Säffle SK+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forward ↓

Säffle SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Forward or draw
85%
Forward or Säffle SK
82%
Draw or Säffle SK
34%

Winning margin

Forward wins by 2+
44%
Säffle SK wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Forward 1+ goals
90%
Forward 2+ goals
68%
Forward 3+ goals
41%
Säffle SK 1+ goals
64%
Säffle SK 2+ goals
28%
Säffle SK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Forward (draw refunded)
81%
Säffle SK (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forward at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.25 · 40 matches

Säffle SK away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forward attack 2.48 + Säffle SK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.35

Säffle SK attack 0.81 + Forward defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Forward scores more
66%
level
18%
Säffle SK scores more
15%

Forward at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Forward will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Forward 0–1 Säffle SK

Säffle SK beat Forward 1-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Trängens IP in Örebro.