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Forward vs Akropolis — Svenska Cupen 2019

Forward
Forward
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Akropolis
Akropolis
9/30/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundTrängens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Forward8%
×Draw16%
Akropolis77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forward
0.58
Akropolis
2.33

Akropolis creates 302% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Forward
0.33
Akropolis
2.00

allows per match

Forward
2.67
Akropolis
0.83

finishing

Forward+0.00on par
Akropolis+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forward ↓

Akropolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–215%
0–312%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Forward or draw
23%
Forward or Akropolis
84%
Draw or Akropolis
92%

Winning margin

Forward wins by 2+
2%
Akropolis wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Forward 1+ goals
44%
Forward 2+ goals
12%
Forward 3+ goals
2%
Akropolis 1+ goals
90%
Akropolis 2+ goals
67%
Akropolis 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Forward (draw refunded)
9%
Akropolis (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forward at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Akropolis away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forward attack 0.33 + Akropolis defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.58

Akropolis attack 2.00 + Forward defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Forward scores more
8%
level
16%
Akropolis scores more
77%

Akropolis at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Akropolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Forward 0–3 Akropolis

Akropolis beat Forward 3-0 in Svenska Cupen on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Trängens IP in Örebro.