Forward Madison vs Union Omaha — USL League One 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
Forward Madison50%
Union Omaha24%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Forward Madison creates 58% more chances
Season form · 23 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Forward Madison ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Forward Madison at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches
Union Omaha away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Forward Madison attack 1.61 + Union Omaha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47
Union Omaha attack 1.17 + Forward Madison defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.93
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Forward Madison at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Forward Madison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Portland Hearts of Pine
Charlotte Independence
Chattanooga Red WolvesUnion Omaha
Alta
One Knoxville
Spokane VelocityForward Madison
Naples
Fort Wayne
Greenville Triumph
Westchester SC
Corpus Christi
Sarasota Paradise
Boise
Tormenta
Richmond Kickers
NY CosmosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Forward Madison host Union Omaha on Sunday, 8 June 2025 at 00:00. The match is part of the USL League One 2025/2026 season.
USL League One: Forward Madison 0–1 Union Omaha
Union Omaha beat Forward Madison 1-0 in USL League One on June 8, 2025.
Goals: I. Martinez (14').
The match was played at Breese Stevens Field.