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Forward Madison vs Richmond Kickers — USL League One 2026

USL League OneUSL League One·2026📍Breese Stevens Field
Forward Madison
Forward Madison
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers
S. Gyamfi 65'
R. Carmichael 60'
K. Toure 45+4', 30'
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 12:00 AM
Tournament
USL League One · Group Stage
Venue
Breese Stevens Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Forward Madison71%
×Draw17%
Richmond Kickers12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forward Madison
2.34
Richmond Kickers
0.83

Forward Madison creates 182% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Forward Madison
2.08
Richmond Kickers
0.90

allows per match

Forward Madison
0.77
Richmond Kickers
2.60

finishing

Forward Madison+0.00on par
Richmond Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forward Madison ↓

Richmond Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Forward Madison or draw
88%
Forward Madison or Richmond Kickers
83%
Draw or Richmond Kickers
29%

Winning margin

Forward Madison wins by 2+
48%
Richmond Kickers wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Forward Madison 1+ goals
90%
Forward Madison 2+ goals
67%
Forward Madison 3+ goals
41%
Richmond Kickers 1+ goals
56%
Richmond Kickers 2+ goals
20%
Richmond Kickers 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Forward Madison (draw refunded)
86%
Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forward Madison at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Richmond Kickers away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forward Madison attack 2.08 + Richmond Kickers defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.34

Richmond Kickers attack 0.90 + Forward Madison defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Forward Madison scores more
71%
level
17%
Richmond Kickers scores more
12%

Forward Madison at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Forward Madison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Y. Fillion
30'
K. Toure
42'
D. Barnathan
43'
O. O'Malley
45+2'
T. Pannholzer
45+4'
K. Toure↳ G. Kanyane
46'
H. Anderson← M. Murana
46'
A. Richman← O. O'Malley
46'
H. Anderson
60'
R. Carmichael↳ R. Torres
62'
A. Amer← D. Espinal
63'
S. Gyamfi
65'
S. Gyamfi↳ R. Carmichael
66'
A. Edwards← J. Bolma
66'
H. Karamoko← R. Carmichael
70'
L. Johnson← J. Kirkland
75'
M. Bolduc← D. Barnathan
80'
J. Forbes← G. Kanyane
80'
J. Shannon← K. Carmichael
82'
B. Howell

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: Forward Madison 4–0 Richmond Kickers

Forward Madison beat Richmond Kickers 4-0 in USL League One on July 16, 2026.

Goals: K. Toure (30', 45+4'), R. Carmichael (60'), S. Gyamfi (65').

The match was played at Breese Stevens Field.