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Forward Madison vs FC Tulsa — US Open Cup 2018

Forward Madison
Forward Madison
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
4/2/2025US Open CupUS Open Cup · 2nd RoundBreese Stevens Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Forward Madison56%
×Draw22%
FC Tulsa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forward Madison
1.99
FC Tulsa
1.16

Forward Madison creates 72% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Forward Madison
2.20
FC Tulsa
1.11

allows per match

Forward Madison
1.20
FC Tulsa
1.78

finishing

Forward Madison+0.00on par
FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forward Madison ↓

FC Tulsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Forward Madison or draw
78%
Forward Madison or FC Tulsa
78%
Draw or FC Tulsa
44%

Winning margin

Forward Madison wins by 2+
33%
FC Tulsa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Forward Madison 1+ goals
86%
Forward Madison 2+ goals
59%
Forward Madison 3+ goals
32%
FC Tulsa 1+ goals
69%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
32%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Forward Madison (draw refunded)
72%
FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forward Madison at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

FC Tulsa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forward Madison attack 2.20 + FC Tulsa defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.99

FC Tulsa attack 1.11 + Forward Madison defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Forward Madison scores more
56%
level
22%
FC Tulsa scores more
22%

Forward Madison at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Forward Madison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forward Madison vs FC Tulsa

FC Tulsa beat Forward Madison 3-1 in US Open Cup on April 2, 2025.

The match was played at Breese Stevens Field.