Forward Madison 1–2 Central Valley Fuego

Forward Madison

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Central Valley Fuego

C. Chaney 42'

A. Cerritos 84' (pen)

Z. Vazquez 74'

6/4/2023

USL League One · Round 7Breese Stevens Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Forward Madison49%

×Draw25%

Central Valley Fuego26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forward MadisonExpected goals in this matchCentral Valley Fuego

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.11

Forward Madison

1.63

Central Valley Fuego

1.11

Forward Madison creates 47% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 42 away

1.30

creates per match

1.38

0.85

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Forward Madison

1.30

Central Valley Fuego

1.38

allows per match

Forward Madison

0.85

Central Valley Fuego

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forward Madison+0.00on par

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forward Madison ↓

Central Valley Fuego →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Forward Madison or draw

74%

Forward Madison or Central Valley Fuego

75%

Draw or Central Valley Fuego

51%

Winning margin

Forward Madison wins by 2+

26%

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Forward Madison 1+ goals

80%

Forward Madison 2+ goals

48%

Forward Madison 3+ goals

22%

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals

67%

Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals

30%

Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Forward Madison (draw refunded)

66%

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forward Madison at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.85 · 99 matches

Central Valley Fuego away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forward Madison attack 1.30 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.63

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.38 + Forward Madison defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Forward Madison scores more

49%

level

25%

Central Valley Fuego scores more

26%

Forward Madison at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Forward Madison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

C. Chaney↳ M. Cichero

53'

60'

61'

62'

67'

67'

W. Prentice← D. Gebhard

67'

E. Conerty← M. Cichero

74'

Z. Vazquez↳ O. Lemus

78'

R. Cromwell

82'

Z. Vazquez

84'

A. CerritosPenalty

87'

A. Forth← A. Cerritos

87'

S. Strong← J. Carrera

90+1'

O. Ramos

90+8'

C. Chaney

Forward

Central

28

North

45

▼

Hanson

13

Dulysse

4

Cromwell

20

▼

Bijev

10

▼

Carrera

7

Dabo

6

Ramos

11

⚽

▼

8

3

55

16

22

5

4

23

14

A

▼

Cichero

7

Martinez

9

⚽

Chaney

17

▼

Gebhard

24

▼

Bartman

Manager: M. Glaeser

67'▲J. Onen←▼N. Bartman

67'▲W. Prentice←▼D. Gebhard

67'▲E. Conerty←▼M. Cichero

Forward Madison substitutes

10Onen19Prentice8Conerty2Screen56Sanchez12Brotherton18Jno-Baptiste

Manager: M. Vasquez

61'▲Z. Vazquez←▼V. Bijev

62'▲O. Lemus←▼H. Hanson

87'▲A. Forth←▼A. Cerritos

87'▲S. Strong←▼J. Carrera

Central Valley Fuego substitutes

14Vazquez17Lemus5Forth2Strong77Forbes58Díaz32Fernández