Fortune vs Tallinding United — GFA League 2020
GFA League · Round 2Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 14+ matches
Fortune43%
Tallinding United26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Fortune creates 39% more chances
Season form · 88 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fortune ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fortune at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.76 · 88 matches
Tallinding United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fortune attack 1.13 + Tallinding United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17
Tallinding United attack 0.93 + Fortune defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Fortune at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Fortune will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Fortune
Medina United
Bombada
GPA
Real de Banjul
Brikama United
BST Galaxy
Team Rhino
Dutch Lions
Hart Acedemy
Greater Tomorrow
Falcons
TMT
Hawks
Samger
Steve BikoTallinding United
Banjul
Falcons
Marimoo
WarriorsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fortune host Tallinding United on Sunday, 24 January 2021 at 16:00. The match is part of the GFA League 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Fortune vs Tallinding United
Fortune and Tallinding United drew 1-1 in GFA League on January 24, 2021.