Fortune vs Medina United — GFA League 2020
GFA League · Round 9Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Fortune29%
Medina United39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Medina United creates 21% more chances
Season form · 88 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under70
- Over30
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No63
- Yes37
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fortune ↓
Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fortune at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.76 · 88 matches
Medina United away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fortune attack 1.13 + Medina United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.86
Medina United attack 1.33 + Fortune defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Medina United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Medina United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Medina UnitedFortune
GPA
Bombada
Brikama United
Real de Banjul
BST Galaxy
Hart Acedemy
Team Rhino
Falcons
Dutch Lions
Hawks
TMT
Greater Tomorrow
Samger
Steve Biko
Falcons
MarimooIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fortune host Medina United on Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 16:00. The match is part of the GFA League 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Fortune vs Medina United
Medina United beat Fortune 2-0 in GFA League on January 31, 2026.