Fortune Sacco vs Gusii — Super League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 54+ matches
Fortune Sacco58%
Gusii16%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Fortune Sacco creates 125% more chances
Season form · 58 home / 54 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fortune Sacco ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fortune Sacco at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.62 · 58 matches
Gusii away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 54 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fortune Sacco attack 1.33 + Gusii defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.51
Gusii attack 0.72 + Fortune Sacco defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.67
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Fortune Sacco at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Fortune Sacco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Migori Youth
3K
Equity Bank
Mombasa Elite
MOFAFortune Sacco
Naivas
Talanta
Kibera Black Stars
Soy United
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
Gucha Stars
Kabati Youth FC
Kisumu All Stars
Darajani Gogo
Nairobi City Stars
Vihiga United FC
MCF
Mwatate UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fortune Sacco host Gusii on Sunday, 29 January 2023 at 12:00. The match is part of the Super League 2018/2019 season.
Preview: Fortune Sacco host Gusii
January 29, 2023: Fortune Sacco take on Gusii in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Fortune Sacco host Gusii at Wang'uru Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.