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Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar — Eredivisie 2018

Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
2/17/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 22Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Fortuna Sittard36%
×Draw23%
AZ Alkmaar41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Sittard
1.55
AZ Alkmaar
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

Fortuna Sittard
1.46
AZ Alkmaar
1.67

allows per match

Fortuna Sittard
1.66
AZ Alkmaar
1.65

finishing

Fortuna Sittard+0.15scores more
AZ Alkmaar-0.24scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Sittard ↓

AZ Alkmaar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Fortuna Sittard or draw
59%
Fortuna Sittard or AZ Alkmaar
77%
Draw or AZ Alkmaar
64%

Winning margin

Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+
17%
AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals
79%
Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals
46%
Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals
20%
AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
81%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
50%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)
47%
AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Sittard at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.66 · 18 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.65 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Sittard attack 1.46 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.55

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.67 + Fortuna Sittard defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fortuna Sittard scores more
36%
level
23%
AZ Alkmaar scores more
41%

AZ Alkmaar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar beat Fortuna Sittard 2-1 in Eredivisie on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion in Sittard.