Fortuna Sittard 2–1 Almere City FC: Result & Stats

Fortuna Sittard

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Almere City FC

8/19/2023

Eredivisie · Round 2Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fortuna Sittard46%

×Draw25%

Almere City FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna SittardExpected goals in this matchAlmere City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.17

Fortuna Sittard

1.54

Almere City FC

1.17

Fortuna Sittard creates 32% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 37 away

1.45

creates per match

0.76

1.58

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Fortuna Sittard

1.45

Almere City FC

0.76

allows per match

Fortuna Sittard

1.58

Almere City FC

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Sittard+0.00on par

Almere City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Sittard ↓

Almere City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fortuna Sittard or draw

71%

Fortuna Sittard or Almere City FC

75%

Draw or Almere City FC

54%

Winning margin

Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+

23%

Almere City FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals

79%

Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals

45%

Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals

20%

Almere City FC 1+ goals

69%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

33%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)

61%

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Sittard at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.58 · 132 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Sittard attack 1.45 + Almere City FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

Almere City FC attack 0.76 + Fortuna Sittard defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fortuna Sittard scores more

46%

level

25%

Almere City FC scores more

29%

Fortuna Sittard at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fortuna Sittard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff