Fortuna Regensburg 3–3 Karlburg: Result & Stats

Fortuna Regensburg

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Karlburg

8/15/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 6Projekt 29 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fortuna Regensburg65%

×Draw17%

Karlburg18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna RegensburgExpected goals in this matchKarlburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

1.37

Fortuna Regensburg

2.72

Karlburg

1.37

Fortuna Regensburg creates 99% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

2.57

creates per match

0.94

1.80

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Fortuna Regensburg

2.57

Karlburg

0.94

allows per match

Fortuna Regensburg

1.80

Karlburg

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Karlburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Regensburg ↓

Karlburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Fortuna Regensburg or draw

82%

Fortuna Regensburg or Karlburg

83%

Draw or Karlburg

35%

Winning margin

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+

45%

Karlburg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals

93%

Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals

75%

Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals

50%

Karlburg 1+ goals

75%

Karlburg 2+ goals

40%

Karlburg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)

79%

Karlburg (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Karlburg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + Karlburg defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.72

Karlburg attack 0.94 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fortuna Regensburg scores more

65%

level

17%

Karlburg scores more

18%

Fortuna Regensburg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff