Fortuna Regensburg vs Ingolstadt II

Fortuna Regensburg

Preview

12:00

Ingolstadt II

5/22/2027

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 34

Big match

45%

Fortuna Regensburg

model favours

45%21%34%

Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

74%

over 2.5 goals

73%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Fortuna Regensburg45%

×Draw21%

Ingolstadt II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna RegensburgExpected goals in this matchIngolstadt II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.80

Fortuna Regensburg

2.07

Ingolstadt II

1.80

Fortuna Regensburg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

2.57

creates per match

1.80

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Fortuna Regensburg

2.57

Ingolstadt II

1.80

allows per match

Fortuna Regensburg

1.80

Ingolstadt II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Regensburg ↓

Ingolstadt II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Fortuna Regensburg or draw

66%

Fortuna Regensburg or Ingolstadt II

79%

Draw or Ingolstadt II

55%

Winning margin

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+

25%

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals

87%

Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals

61%

Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals

34%

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals

83%

Ingolstadt II 2+ goals

54%

Ingolstadt II 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)

57%

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.07

Ingolstadt II attack 1.80 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fortuna Regensburg scores more

45%

level

21%

Ingolstadt II scores more

34%

Fortuna Regensburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Regensburg

WDWWL

II

LWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff