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Fortuna Regensburg vs Eichstätt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Eichstätt
Eichstätt
P. Bockes 42'
J. Fries 89' (pen), 45+2'
F. Eberle 27'
L. Schraufstetter 16'
4/12/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 32Projekt 29 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fortuna Regensburg38%
×Draw21%
Eichstätt41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Regensburg
1.96
Eichstätt
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 35 away

creates per match

Fortuna Regensburg
2.57
Eichstätt
2.23

allows per match

Fortuna Regensburg
1.80
Eichstätt
1.34

finishing

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par
Eichstätt+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Regensburg ↓

Eichstätt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Fortuna Regensburg or draw
59%
Fortuna Regensburg or Eichstätt
79%
Draw or Eichstätt
62%

Winning margin

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
21%
Eichstätt wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
86%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
58%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
31%
Eichstätt 1+ goals
87%
Eichstätt 2+ goals
60%
Eichstätt 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
49%
Eichstätt (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Eichstätt away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + Eichstätt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.96

Eichstätt attack 2.23 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fortuna Regensburg scores more
38%
level
21%
Eichstätt scores more
41%

Eichstätt at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eichstätt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
L. Schraufstetter
27'
F. Eberle
42'
P. Bockes
45+2'
J. Fries
89'
J. FriesPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Regensburg vs Eichstätt

Eichstätt beat Fortuna Regensburg 4-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 12, 2024.

Goals: L. Schraufstetter (16'), F. Eberle (27'), P. Bockes (42'), J. Fries (45+2', 89' pen).

The match was played at Projekt 29 Arena in Regensburg.