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Fortuna Regensburg vs Ammerthal — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Ammerthal
Ammerthal
7/23/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 1Projekt 29 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Fortuna Regensburg50%
×Draw20%
Ammerthal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Regensburg
2.23
Ammerthal
1.71

Fortuna Regensburg creates 30% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

creates per match

Fortuna Regensburg
2.57
Ammerthal
1.63

allows per match

Fortuna Regensburg
1.80
Ammerthal
1.90

finishing

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par
Ammerthal+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Regensburg ↓

Ammerthal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Fortuna Regensburg or draw
70%
Fortuna Regensburg or Ammerthal
80%
Draw or Ammerthal
50%

Winning margin

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
29%
Ammerthal wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
89%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
65%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
38%
Ammerthal 1+ goals
82%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
51%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
62%
Ammerthal (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Ammerthal away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.90 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + Ammerthal defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.23

Ammerthal attack 1.63 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fortuna Regensburg scores more
50%
level
20%
Ammerthal scores more
30%

Fortuna Regensburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Fortuna Regensburg 1–3 Ammerthal

Ammerthal beat Fortuna Regensburg 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on July 23, 2023.

The match was played at Projekt 29 Arena in Regensburg.