Fortuna Regensburg 1–2 Abtswind: Result & Stats

Fortuna Regensburg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Abtswind

F. Ziegler 62'

E. Zelenskiy 74'

J. Enzmann 29'

7/27/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 2Projekt 29 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Fortuna Regensburg43%

×Draw22%

Abtswind35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna RegensburgExpected goals in this matchAbtswind

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.71

Fortuna Regensburg

1.92

Abtswind

1.71

Fortuna Regensburg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

2.57

creates per match

1.62

1.80

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Fortuna Regensburg

2.57

Abtswind

1.62

allows per match

Fortuna Regensburg

1.80

Abtswind

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Abtswind+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Regensburg ↓

Abtswind →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Fortuna Regensburg or draw

65%

Fortuna Regensburg or Abtswind

78%

Draw or Abtswind

57%

Winning margin

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+

24%

Abtswind wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals

85%

Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals

57%

Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals

30%

Abtswind 1+ goals

82%

Abtswind 2+ goals

51%

Abtswind 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)

55%

Abtswind (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Abtswind away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + Abtswind defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.92

Abtswind attack 1.62 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fortuna Regensburg scores more

43%

level

22%

Abtswind scores more

35%

Fortuna Regensburg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

J. Enzmann

62'

F. Ziegler

74'

E. Zelenskiy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff