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Fortuna Mfou vs Tonnerre — Elite One 2019

Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
FT
5 – 1
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
4/13/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 8Stade Annexe de la Reunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Fortuna Mfou43%
×Draw29%
Tonnerre28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Mfou
1.23
Tonnerre
0.94

Fortuna Mfou creates 31% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 36 away

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.28
Tonnerre
0.64

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.23
Tonnerre
1.19

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw
72%
Fortuna Mfou or Tonnerre
71%
Draw or Tonnerre
57%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
19%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
71%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
35%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
13%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
61%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
24%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
60%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Tonnerre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tonnerre attack 0.64 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more
43%
level
29%
Tonnerre scores more
28%

Fortuna Mfou at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fortuna Mfou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Fortuna Mfou 5–1 Tonnerre

Fortuna Mfou beat Tonnerre 5-1 in Elite One on April 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Annexe de la Reunification in Douala.