Fortuna Mfou 0–0 Gazelle: Result & Stats

Fortuna Mfou

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gazelle

5/10/2026

Elite One · Round 18Stade Omnisports Annexe 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Fortuna Mfou36%

×Draw28%

Gazelle37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna MfouExpected goals in this matchGazelle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.22

Fortuna Mfou

1.20

Gazelle

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 52 away

1.28

creates per match

1.21

1.23

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou

1.28

Gazelle

1.21

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou

1.23

Gazelle

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Gazelle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Gazelle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw

63%

Fortuna Mfou or Gazelle

72%

Draw or Gazelle

64%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+

15%

Gazelle wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals

70%

Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals

34%

Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals

12%

Gazelle 1+ goals

70%

Gazelle 2+ goals

34%

Gazelle 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)

49%

Gazelle (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Gazelle away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Gazelle defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Gazelle attack 1.21 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more

36%

level

28%

Gazelle scores more

37%

Gazelle at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gazelle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff