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Fortuna Mfou vs Fovu Club — Elite One 2019

Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
FT
3 – 0
Fovu Club
Fovu Club
3/9/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 27Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Fortuna Mfou39%
×Draw28%
Fovu Club34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Mfou
1.25
Fovu Club
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 67 away

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.28
Fovu Club
1.06

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.23
Fovu Club
1.22

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par
Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Fovu Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw
66%
Fortuna Mfou or Fovu Club
72%
Draw or Fovu Club
61%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
17%
Fovu Club wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
71%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
36%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
13%
Fovu Club 1+ goals
68%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
32%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
53%
Fovu Club (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Fovu Club defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fovu Club attack 1.06 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more
39%
level
28%
Fovu Club scores more
34%

Fortuna Mfou at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortuna Mfou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Mfou vs Fovu Club

Fortuna Mfou beat Fovu Club 3-0 in Elite One on March 9, 2020.

The match was played at Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo in Mbankomo.