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Fortuna Mfou vs Dynamo de Douala — Elite One 2019

Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
4/19/2026Elite OneElite One · Round 14Stade Ahmadou Ahidjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Fortuna Mfou35%
×Draw27%
Dynamo de Douala38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Mfou
1.21
Dynamo de Douala
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 38 away

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.28
Dynamo de Douala
1.34

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.23
Dynamo de Douala
1.13

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par
Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Dynamo de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw
62%
Fortuna Mfou or Dynamo de Douala
73%
Draw or Dynamo de Douala
65%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
15%
Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
70%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
34%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
12%
Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
72%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
37%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
47%
Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Dynamo de Douala away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.34 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more
35%
level
27%
Dynamo de Douala scores more
38%

Dynamo de Douala at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Fortuna Mfou 1–3 Dynamo de Douala

Dynamo de Douala beat Fortuna Mfou 3-1 in Elite One on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Ahmadou Ahidjo.