Fortuna Mfou 2–0 Avion Academy: Result & Stats

Fortuna Mfou

FT

2 – 0

Avion Academy

3/20/2021

Elite One · Round 3Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Fortuna Mfou42%

×Draw28%

Avion Academy30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna MfouExpected goals in this matchAvion Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.02

Fortuna Mfou

1.27

Avion Academy

1.02

Fortuna Mfou creates 25% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 67 away

1.28

creates per match

0.82

1.23

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou

1.28

Avion Academy

0.82

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou

1.23

Avion Academy

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Avion Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw

70%

Fortuna Mfou or Avion Academy

72%

Draw or Avion Academy

58%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+

19%

Avion Academy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals

72%

Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals

36%

Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals

14%

Avion Academy 1+ goals

64%

Avion Academy 2+ goals

27%

Avion Academy 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)

59%

Avion Academy (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more

42%

level

28%

Avion Academy scores more

30%

Fortuna Mfou at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fortuna Mfou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff