Fortuna Köln 5–1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen

Fortuna Köln

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

T. Bornemann 90'

A. Stanilewicz 77'

V. Statovci 63', 45'

N. Thier 14'

E. Demirarslan 71'

8/16/2025

League #87 · West - 4Südstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Fortuna Köln36%

×Draw24%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna KölnExpected goals in this matchRot-weiss Oberhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.62

Fortuna Köln

1.50

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

1.90

creates per match

2.17

1.07

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Fortuna Köln

1.90

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

2.17

allows per match

Fortuna Köln

1.07

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Köln+0.00on par

Rot-weiss Oberhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln ↓

Rot-weiss Oberhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln or draw

59%

Fortuna Köln or Rot-weiss Oberhausen

76%

Draw or Rot-weiss Oberhausen

64%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln wins by 2+

17%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln 1+ goals

78%

Fortuna Köln 2+ goals

44%

Fortuna Köln 3+ goals

19%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1+ goals

80%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 2+ goals

48%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln (draw refunded)

47%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches

Rot-weiss Oberhausen away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln attack 1.90 + Rot-weiss Oberhausen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rot-weiss Oberhausen attack 2.17 + Fortuna Köln defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fortuna Köln scores more

36%

level

24%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen scores more

41%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rot-weiss Oberhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

N. Thier

19'

M. Ngyombo

23'

23'

45'

51'

63'

71'

77'

90'

Fortuna

Rot-weiss

Manager: M. Mink

Manager: S. Gunkel