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Fortuna Köln vs Paderborn II — League #87 2026

Fortuna Köln
Fortuna Köln
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paderborn II
Paderborn II
11/9/2025League #87League #87 · West - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fortuna Köln52%
×Draw23%
Paderborn II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln
1.83
Paderborn II
1.20

Fortuna Köln creates 53% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 10 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln
1.86
Paderborn II
1.30

allows per match

Fortuna Köln
1.09
Paderborn II
1.80

finishing

Fortuna Köln+0.00on par
Paderborn II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln ↓

Paderborn II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln or draw
75%
Fortuna Köln or Paderborn II
77%
Draw or Paderborn II
48%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln wins by 2+
29%
Paderborn II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln 1+ goals
84%
Fortuna Köln 2+ goals
54%
Fortuna Köln 3+ goals
28%
Paderborn II 1+ goals
70%
Paderborn II 2+ goals
34%
Paderborn II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln (draw refunded)
68%
Paderborn II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Paderborn II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln attack 1.86 + Paderborn II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.83

Paderborn II attack 1.30 + Fortuna Köln defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fortuna Köln scores more
52%
level
23%
Paderborn II scores more
25%

Fortuna Köln at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fortuna Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Fortuna
Paderborn
M. Mink
Manager: M. Mink
T. Bertels
Manager: T. Bertels

League #87: Fortuna Köln 0–0 Paderborn II

Fortuna Köln and Paderborn II drew 0-0 in League #87 on November 9, 2025.