Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fortuna Köln vs Chemnitzer FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fortuna Köln
Fortuna Köln
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Chemnitzer FC
Chemnitzer FC
D. Al Azzawe 87'
H. Al Ghaddioui 60', 31'
T. Stockinger 58'
J. Marx 16'
J. Pistol 4'
1/13/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fortuna Köln39%
×Draw22%
Chemnitzer FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln
1.80
Chemnitzer FC
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln
2.75
Chemnitzer FC
2.14

allows per match

Fortuna Köln
1.50
Chemnitzer FC
0.86

finishing

Fortuna Köln+0.00on par
Chemnitzer FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln ↓

Chemnitzer FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln or draw
61%
Fortuna Köln or Chemnitzer FC
78%
Draw or Chemnitzer FC
61%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln wins by 2+
20%
Chemnitzer FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln 1+ goals
83%
Fortuna Köln 2+ goals
54%
Fortuna Köln 3+ goals
27%
Chemnitzer FC 1+ goals
84%
Chemnitzer FC 2+ goals
54%
Chemnitzer FC 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln (draw refunded)
49%
Chemnitzer FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Chemnitzer FC away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln attack 2.75 + Chemnitzer FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.80

Chemnitzer FC attack 2.14 + Fortuna Köln defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fortuna Köln scores more
39%
level
22%
Chemnitzer FC scores more
39%

Fortuna Köln at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortuna Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
J. Pistol
16'
J. Marx
31'
H. Al Ghaddioui
58'
T. Stockinger
60'
H. Al Ghaddioui
87'
D. Al Azzawe
Fortuna
Chemnitzer
M. Mink
Manager: M. Mink
B. Duda
Manager: B. Duda

Friendlies Clubs: Fortuna Köln 3–3 Chemnitzer FC

Fortuna Köln and Chemnitzer FC drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2026.

Goals: J. Pistol (4'), J. Marx (16'), H. Al Ghaddioui (31', 60'), T. Stockinger (58'), D. Al Azzawe (87').