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Fortuna Köln vs Bergisch Gladbach — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fortuna Köln
Fortuna Köln
CANC
13:00
Bergisch Gladbach
Bergisch Gladbach
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fortuna Köln48%
×Draw19%
Bergisch Gladbach33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln
2.66
Bergisch Gladbach
2.22

Fortuna Köln creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln
2.91
Bergisch Gladbach
2.80

allows per match

Fortuna Köln
1.64
Bergisch Gladbach
2.40

finishing

Fortuna Köln+0.00on par
Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln ↓

Bergisch Gladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln or draw
67%
Fortuna Köln or Bergisch Gladbach
81%
Draw or Bergisch Gladbach
52%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln wins by 2+
30%
Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln 1+ goals
93%
Fortuna Köln 2+ goals
74%
Fortuna Köln 3+ goals
49%
Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals
89%
Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals
65%
Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln (draw refunded)
59%
Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln at home — creates 2.91, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Bergisch Gladbach away — creates 2.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln attack 2.91 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.66

Bergisch Gladbach attack 2.80 + Fortuna Köln defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fortuna Köln scores more
48%
level
19%
Bergisch Gladbach scores more
33%

Fortuna Köln at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fortuna Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fortuna Köln face Bergisch Gladbach (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Fortuna Köln hosting Bergisch Gladbach. Match starts January 20, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fortuna Köln host Bergisch Gladbach at Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.