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Fortuna Köln U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Fortuna Köln U19
Fortuna Köln U19
CANC
11:00
Wuppertaler SV U19
Wuppertaler SV U19
4/10/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 16Bezirkssportanlage Chorweiler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fortuna Köln U1947%
×Draw21%
Wuppertaler SV U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln U19
2.05
Wuppertaler SV U19
1.68

Fortuna Köln U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 33 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln U19
1.44
Wuppertaler SV U19
0.79

allows per match

Fortuna Köln U19
2.56
Wuppertaler SV U19
2.67

finishing

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par
Wuppertaler SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln U19 ↓

Wuppertaler SV U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln U19 or draw
68%
Fortuna Köln U19 or Wuppertaler SV U19
79%
Draw or Wuppertaler SV U19
53%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+
27%
Wuppertaler SV U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals
87%
Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals
61%
Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals
33%
Wuppertaler SV U19 1+ goals
81%
Wuppertaler SV U19 2+ goals
50%
Wuppertaler SV U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Wuppertaler SV U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln U19 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.56 · 16 matches

Wuppertaler SV U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.67 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 1.44 + Wuppertaler SV U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Wuppertaler SV U19 attack 0.79 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more
47%
level
21%
Wuppertaler SV U19 scores more
32%

Fortuna Köln U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fortuna Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fortuna Köln U19 face Wuppertaler SV U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Fortuna Köln U19 hosting Wuppertaler SV U19. Match starts April 10, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fortuna Köln U19 host Wuppertaler SV U19 at Bezirkssportanlage Chorweiler.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.