Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fortuna Köln U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Fortuna Köln U19
Fortuna Köln U19
FT
2 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Osnabrück U19
Osnabrück U19
2/28/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fortuna Köln U1936%
×Draw21%
Osnabrück U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln U19
1.94
Osnabrück U19
2.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 73 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln U19
1.36
Osnabrück U19
1.29

allows per match

Fortuna Köln U19
2.93
Osnabrück U19
2.51

finishing

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par
Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln U19 or draw
57%
Fortuna Köln U19 or Osnabrück U19
79%
Draw or Osnabrück U19
64%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+
19%
Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals
86%
Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals
58%
Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals
30%
Osnabrück U19 1+ goals
88%
Osnabrück U19 2+ goals
62%
Osnabrück U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 1.36 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.94

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more
36%
level
21%
Osnabrück U19 scores more
43%

Osnabrück U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Osnabrück U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Fortuna
Osnabrück
T. Westendorf
Manager: T. Westendorf
T. Danneberg
Manager: T. Danneberg

Fortuna Köln U19 2 – 6 Osnabrück U19

Osnabrück U19 beat Fortuna Köln U19 6-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 28, 2026.