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Fortuna Köln U19 vs MSV Duisburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Fortuna Köln U19
Fortuna Köln U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
MSV Duisburg U19
MSV Duisburg U19
5/10/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fortuna Köln U1929%
×Draw21%
MSV Duisburg U1950%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln U19
1.62
MSV Duisburg U19
2.17

MSV Duisburg U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 68 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln U19
1.36
MSV Duisburg U19
1.40

allows per match

Fortuna Köln U19
2.93
MSV Duisburg U19
1.88

finishing

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par
MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln U19 ↓

MSV Duisburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln U19 or draw
50%
Fortuna Köln U19 or MSV Duisburg U19
79%
Draw or MSV Duisburg U19
71%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+
14%
MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals
80%
Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals
48%
Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals
22%
MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals
89%
MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals
64%
MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)
37%
MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

MSV Duisburg U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.88 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 1.36 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.62

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.40 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more
29%
level
21%
MSV Duisburg U19 scores more
50%

MSV Duisburg U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "MSV Duisburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Fortuna
MSV
T. Westendorf
Manager: T. Westendorf
M. Jahn
Manager: M. Jahn

Match Recap: Fortuna Köln U19 vs MSV Duisburg U19

Fortuna Köln U19 and MSV Duisburg U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on May 10, 2026.