Fortuna Köln U19 2–3 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Fortuna Köln U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

N. Kashama 26', 20'

J. Seven 75'

E. Kalonji 56', 31' (pen)

4/23/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 16Großsportanlage Bocklemünd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fortuna Köln U1923%

×Draw20%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1957%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Köln U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.30

Fortuna Köln U19

1.42

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

2.30

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 66 away

1.36

creates per match

1.67

2.93

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Fortuna Köln U19

1.36

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.67

allows per match

Fortuna Köln U19

2.93

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln U19 or draw

43%

Fortuna Köln U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

80%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

77%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+

10%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals

76%

Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals

41%

Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals

17%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

90%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

67%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 1.36 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.67 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more

23%

level

20%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

57%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

N. Kashama

26'

N. Kashama

31'

E. KalonjiPenalty

56'

E. Kalonji

64'

L. Lützeler← A. Sancarbarlaz

64'

S. Soghomonian← N. Gatzke

70'

I. Adenuga← W. Ezami

75'

J. Seven

80'

J. Altug← M. Ojesanmi

84'

90+2'

Fortuna

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: T. Westendorf

64'▲L. Lützeler←▼A. Sancarbarlaz

70'▲I. Adenuga←▼W. Ezami

80'▲J. Altug←▼M. Ojesanmi

Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes

LützelerAdenugaAltugWirtzSchwierenKaczmarek

Manager: S. Suker

64'▲S. Soghomonian←▼N. Gatzke

84'▲K. Sadeghi←▼F. Sari

90+2'▲E. Işık←▼N. Garić

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

SoghomonianSadeghiIşıkGiesenKrencRommel

Match Recap: Fortuna Köln U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 beat Fortuna Köln U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on April 23, 2022.

Goals: N. Kashama (20', 26'), E. Kalonji (31' pen, 56'), J. Seven (75').

The match was played at Großsportanlage Bocklemünd in Köln.

Fortuna Köln U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fortuna Köln U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19