Fortuna Köln U19 1–4 Borussia Dortmund U19

Fortuna Köln U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Borussia Dortmund U19

G. Di Fine 33'

A. Mengot 84'

A. El-Zein 48'

B. Fink 43' (pen)

C. Kleine-Bekel 41'

9/25/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 3Großsportanlage Bocklemünd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fortuna Köln U1915%

×Draw16%

Borussia Dortmund U1968%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Köln U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.78

Fortuna Köln U19

1.27

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.78

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 119% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 65 away

1.36

creates per match

2.62

2.93

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Fortuna Köln U19

1.36

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.62

allows per match

Fortuna Köln U19

2.93

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln U19 or draw

32%

Fortuna Köln U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19

84%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19

85%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+

6%

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals

72%

Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals

36%

Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals

14%

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

94%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

76%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.62, concedes 1.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 1.36 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.62 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more

15%

level

16%

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

68%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

G. Di Fine

41'

C. Kleine-Bekel

43'

B. FinkPenalty

48'

A. El-Zein

61'

M. Satilmis← T. Suleiman

61'

N. Kashama← M. Ojesanmi

76'

F. Bauens← O. Calis

76'

M. Ludwig← J. Rijkhoff

76'

N. Mrosek← L. Semić

83'

J. Hoffmann← J. Francis

83'

A. Mengot← A. El-Zein

84'

A. Mengot

85'

J. Husseck← F. Cissé

Fortuna

Borussia

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: T. Westendorf

61'▲M. Satilmis←▼T. Suleiman

61'▲N. Kashama←▼M. Ojesanmi

76'▲F. Bauens←▼O. Calis

83'▲J. Hoffmann←▼J. Francis

Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes

SatilmisKashamaBauensHoffmannSancarbarlazSchürmannEzami

Manager: M. Tullberg

76'▲M. Ludwig←▼J. Rijkhoff

76'▲N. Mrosek←▼L. Semić

83'▲A. Mengot←▼A. El-Zein

85'▲J. Husseck←▼F. Cissé

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

LudwigMrosekMengotHusseckDühringOstrzinskiGencoglu

U19 Bundesliga: Fortuna Köln U19 1–4 Borussia Dortmund U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat Fortuna Köln U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 25, 2021.

Goals: G. Di Fine (33'), C. Kleine-Bekel (41'), B. Fink (43' pen), A. El-Zein (48'), A. Mengot (84').

The match was played at Großsportanlage Bocklemünd in Köln.

Fortuna Köln U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Fortuna Köln U19 1–4 Borussia Dortmund U19