Fortuna Köln U19 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Fortuna Köln U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Bayer Leverkusen U19

A. Aourir 29'

Jung In-Gyom 10'

9/11/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 1Großsportanlage Bocklemünd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fortuna Köln U1919%

×Draw18%

Bayer Leverkusen U1963%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Köln U19Expected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

2.56

Fortuna Köln U19

1.36

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.56

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 66 away

1.36

creates per match

2.18

2.93

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Fortuna Köln U19

1.36

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.18

allows per match

Fortuna Köln U19

2.93

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln U19 or draw

37%

Fortuna Köln U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19

82%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19

81%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+

8%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals

74%

Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals

39%

Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals

16%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

92%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

72%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.36 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 1.36 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.18 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more

19%

level

18%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

63%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Jung In-Gyom

29'

A. Aourir

30'

L. Lützeler← F. San José

37'

V. Ballicalioglu← Jung In-Gyom

56'

L. Köhl← C. Schwieren

74'

N. Pesch← Iker Bravo

85'

M. Satilmis← O. Calis

88'

M. Ojesanmi← G. Di Fine

88'

C. Moustfa← A. Tshimuanga

Fortuna

Bayer

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Westendorf

30'▲L. Lützeler←▼F. San José

85'▲M. Satilmis←▼O. Calis

88'▲M. Ojesanmi←▼G. Di Fine

Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes

LützelerSatilmisOjesanmiFrancisHoffmannSchürmannYaman

Manager: S. Hübscher

37'▲V. Ballicalioglu←▼Jung In-Gyom

56'▲L. Köhl←▼C. Schwieren

74'▲N. Pesch←▼Iker Bravo

88'▲C. Moustfa←▼A. Tshimuanga

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

BallicaliogluKöhlPeschMoustfaBancéPeschNeutgens

Match Recap: Fortuna Köln U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Fortuna Köln U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 11, 2021.

Goals: Jung In-Gyom (10'), A. Aourir (29').

The match was played at Großsportanlage Bocklemünd in Köln.

Fortuna Köln U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fortuna Köln U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19